A US intelligence report has warned that if Pakistan provokes India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, the Indian army is likely to respond with military force. The annual threat assessment of the US Intelligence Community report stated that Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India terrorist groups. The report highlights the potential for violent unrest in Kashmir or terrorist attacks in India, which could be a flashpoint for further conflict.
The report also expressed concern about the growing risk between the two nuclear-armed countries. “New Delhi and Islamabad are likely to strengthen their ties after the two sides resume ceasefire along the Line of Control in early 2021,” the report said.
The India-Pakistan crisis has been a long-standing issue, with tensions often rising over the Kashmir dispute and cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan. The report noted that the relationship between the two countries has been particularly worrying due to their nuclear capabilities.
In addition to the India-Pakistan crisis, the report also addressed the relationship between India and China. While bilateral border talks have been held and tensions were resolved at several border points, the violent clash in 2020 has left the relationship between the two countries tense. The report noted that the deployment of forces by both countries at the disputed site increases the armed risk between the two nuclear powers regarding the border dispute.
The report concluded that past standoffs have shown that frequent small skirmishes along the LAC can quickly escalate into a major conflict. It is crucial for both countries to maintain a peaceful and diplomatic resolution to their border disputes to prevent further tensions.
India’s relations with both Pakistan and China have been strained for several years. Relations with Pakistan have been low since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, while relations with China have deteriorated since the 2020 skirmish with Indo-China soldiers in Galvan. With the situation remaining tense, it is important for both countries to engage in diplomatic talks and work towards a peaceful resolution to prevent any potential escalation of conflict.